The NBA MVP race just took a wild turn. Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic, a multi-time MVP winner, picked up a knee injury on Monday night. He’s expected to be out for the next month. This really shakes things up for the MVP award this season, and it shows why a single injury can completely flip the script. Suddenly, Oklahoma City Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA) is the clear favorite. But weirdly, it could also open the door for some total long shots if more top contenders get hurt.
A Season of Star Setbacks
Jokic’s injury is just the latest in a pretty long line of high-profile setbacks this season. It’s a pattern, really. Back on November 14, Victor Wembanyama, a huge talent, missed a month with a left calf injury. That put him near the 17-game limit for MVP eligibility. Players need 65 games to even be considered for the award. So, his odds just dropped, leaving only four clear favorites. Then Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks got hit.
He strained his soleus muscle in his calf on December 3. That sidelined him for most of that month. His MVP chances took a big dive too, especially with the Bucks struggling without him. That left just three main contenders. Now, with Jokic out, we’re down to two clear favorites, or maybe just one.
SGA’s Unstoppable Rise and Durability Edge
Right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is sitting pretty. According to ESPN Bet, he’s the odds-on favorite at -450. That’s a huge lead. Luka Doncic is the only other player even close, at +370. The drop-off after that is pretty steep. Cade Cunningham is at +5000, and Jalen Brunson is +6000.
SGA’s biggest asset right now? His health. He used to miss a lot of games earlier in his career. From 2020-21 to 2022-23, he missed about 25.7 games per season. But for the last two seasons, he’s only missed 6.5 games on average. He even finished second and first in MVP voting in those years. This season, he’s only missed one game. That’s a big deal.
Now, consider Luka Doncic. He’s already missed seven of the Lakers’ first 30 games. That pace means he’d play around 63 games for the season. He actually averaged 62.8 games over the last four seasons. Last season, he only played 50. If Luka keeps missing games at this rate, he won’t even qualify for MVP consideration. If that happens, SGA would be the only viable contender left from the top five guys everyone picked at the start. It really makes you think about how important staying on the court is.
The Long Shot Lottery: A Wide-Open Field?
Here’s the really interesting part. What if SGA misses extended time? Say he gets hurt, too. The MVP race would go from a one-man show to completely wide open. Seriously, it’d be wild. Players with odds of 50-1 or even longer would suddenly be frontrunners. Imagine that.
This is where betting on “long shots” could actually pay off. People looking for value might want to put a small bet on these guys now. We’re talking about players like Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown (+100-1), Tyrese Maxey (+100-1), and Anthony Edwards (+500-1).
One bad break for SGA, and any of them could be in the conversation. Jokic’s absence for four weeks, confirmed by the Nuggets, just showed how quickly things can change. And Luka Doncic’s consistent injury history just adds to the uncertainty.
Right now, it pretty much looks like Gilgeous-Alexander will hoist his second straight MVP award. But sports are unpredictable. Just a couple of days ago, everyone expected Jokic to fight him hard for it. The NBA really can change super fast. Futures bettors should definitely keep an eye on these injury trends. It makes the MVP race a lot more interesting than just watching the favorites.
Annsly Raena 
Tanya Singh